Good afternoon everyone. I hope you’re all well. Personally, I am feeling well after a tumultuous few weeks. Let’s get straight into the markets as there’s a fair amount going on this week.
So, firstly, I feel we’re quite oversold here price action wise, therefore, feelings are that a move back up to possibly even $20,000 on Bitcoin is do-able. With this move up, I will take the opportunity to look for Shorts. The one I have my eye on the most is ATOM. I like the way that’s it’s moved higher, but created a bear div already and now it’s looking to push a new high, likely creating another bear div on the daily whilst also being challenged at the horizontal resistance at $17.45. I think this is a good opportunity for a Short if we get the move higher. BTC and ATOM charts shared.
Macro – FED This Week:
This Wednesday (21/09/2022), the FED will make their next interest rate decision. There is a strong chance they will raise rates by 75 basis points. There has been talk of a 100 basis point raise but I think this will be seen as almost a panicky move from the FED and the FED themselves will want to avoid this I believe. I think 50 basis points would be seen as a policy mistake which the FED will definitely want to avoid, so I think we can rule 50 basis points out.
On Wednesday, I believe we’ll see 75 basis points and the market will have a small move up (likely very small though) as 100 bp won’t have been done (assuming I am right). However, 30 minutes after the release of the Interest Rate rise, Powell will speak. In this, my feeling is he’ll be hawkish and allude to pain having to be felt in order to bring down the ‘stickier’ aspects of inflation such as shelter (rents), food and wages. It’s likely he’ll use the ‘stick to the course’ line a lot suggesting that the FED are focused on getting inflation back down to target – 2%. On this speech, I think markets will sell off again – again assuming I am right in him being hawkish.
On Wednesday the volatility will be significant so it’s worth being careful around this. I’d like to fill Shorts into a higher moving market between now and then (although risky I feel comfortable doing it).
The key thing here is that the big boy wallets we watch have sold off more and the smallest wallets we watch have risked on more heavily again. This is exactly the picture we want to see that indicates to us, ‘ok cool, still remain patient and sat on the sides’. There is likely more downside to come. 1k Wallet Addresses shared.
All-in-all I feel quite comfortable with what’s going to happen this week. In short, the plan of action is to see the market rise up a bit into the interest rate decision – possibility of us filling some Shorts into this, eye is on ATOM. Then, following Powell’s speech, the markets tests lower again, hopefully putting our Shorts in profits.
Remember, no one is ever always correct and never listen to just one opinion, and take all opinions with a grain of salt. I’ll continue to stay USD heavy and will be manoeuvrable to the changing situation. Either way, looking forward to this week.
Let’s see what we get.