Bitcoin (BTC) recently experienced a sharp decline, tumbling towards $40,000 amid a broader sell-off across the cryptocurrency market. While the most significant token managed to recover some losses, currently trading 4% lower at $42,000, concerns persist regarding the potential for further downside price action before a potential recovery.
Investors Show Caution With Short-BTC Position Inflows
According to a recent CoinShares report, digital asset investment products witnessed their 11th consecutive week of inflows, totaling $43 million. Notably, there was a significant increase in short position inflows due to recent price appreciation and perceived downside risks.
Europe led with $43 million in inflows, followed by the US with $14 million (with half in short positions). On the other hand, Hong Kong and Brazil experienced outflows of $8 million and $4.6 million, respectively.
Bitcoin remained the primary focus for investors, attracting $20 million in inflows, bringing the year-to-date inflows to $1.7 billion. Short-Bitcoin positions saw $8.6 million in inflows, suggesting some investors view the current price rises as unsustainable.
Ethereum (ETH) also saw increased interest, with its sixth week of inflows totaling $10 million, marking a turnaround from previous outflows.
Selling Pressure Mounts As Miners Decrease Bitcoin Holdings
According to Satoshi Club, there are indications that miners are selling their Bitcoin holdings following the recent price drop. Data shows a significant decrease in miners’ BTC holdings, with increasing flows to exchanges, suggesting selling pressure in the market.
Satoshi Club’s analysis highlights that this trend could be attributed to the anticipated halving in 2024, which will reduce miners’ rewards by half.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s net unrealized profit/loss, which indicates the investor profit ratio, has surpassed 0.5 for the first time since December 2021. This suggests that a significant portion of Bitcoin investments are currently profitable, potentially leading to increased selling pressure at current price highs.
BTC’s Bullish Structure Intact, But Deep Correction Threatens Run
In the 1-day chart for Bitcoin, the current trading price is closely aligned with a support level. Despite briefly dipping below this level, Bitcoin has managed to recover and trade above it, mitigating further declines.
However, in the event of continued selling pressure and an inability to maintain its current price level, Bitcoin’s next critical level of support would be $39,990.
It is worth noting that during the previous hype surrounding Bitcoin’s milestone, many traders entered long positions below the current levels. This influx of long positions could trigger a liquidation hunt before a recovery ensues.
If such a scenario unfolds, the hunt for liquidations could drive Bitcoin’s price further down, potentially testing support levels at $38,700 and $37,800.
On a positive note, Bitcoin’s current bullish structure would remain intact unless a significant correction occurs, pushing the price below the $29,900 level. This level began Bitcoin’s current bull run in late October.
The future outcome hinges on whether Bitcoin can successfully hold its nearest support levels and facilitate a recovery that shifts the focus from hunting long positions to hunting short sellers, eventually regaining previously conquered territories.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com